09 September 2019

In 2018 the 6.7 million NZETS emission units allocated to 76 emitters were worth at least 243 million NZ dollars

All this data tidying and charting. It can lead to not seeing the forest for the trees. In this post I estimate the value of the 2018 free industrial allocation of emissions units to emitting industries. The number is 243 million New Zealand dollars. I find that gob-smacking

Following up from my last post, I wondered what was the market value of the 6.7 million emission units given to eligible emitters under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme 2018 industrial allocation?

We will need market prices for emissions units. There is an online 'open data' Github repository of New Zealand Unit (NZU) prices going back to May 2010.

The NZU repository has it's own citation and DOI:

Theecanmole. (2016). New Zealand emission unit (NZU) monthly prices 2010 to 2016: V1.0.01 [Data set]. Zenodo. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.221328

Under the Section 86 of the Climate Change Response Act 2002, eligible emitters or 'participants' in the ETS, as they are defined, may apply to the Environmental Protection Authority for a 'provisional' or estimated quantity of units for a future compliance year and for a 'final' or actual quantity of units for a past year.

We recall that one of National's 2009 amendments to the NZETS was to make unit allocation proportional to actual production. So that requires an provisional estimate and an actual 'wash-up' calculation once actual production from the regulated 'activity' is known.

The emitters must apply for both provisional and final allocations between 1 January and 30 April of each year. I am assuming that the EPA checks the applications and then transfers the initial allocation to accounts in the NZ Emissions Trading Register in May of each year.

The provisional allocation does not have to be gazetted or published. The final allocation must be gazetted or publicised on the EPA's website under Section 86B(5). But it can't be known until the EPA has received and processed all the historic wash-up applications for the just finished calendar year. That's why in September 2019 the EPA have only the 2018 unit allocations on their website. And not the 2018 final allocations.

It may be the accountant within me, but I think the emitters will want to get their initial application as close to 100% correct as possible. Or to exceed it. Because free units now will always be better than free units in 12 months time.

So let's assume the initial industrial allocation is transferred to emitters' accounts in May. At that point we can make a calculation of market value. We can check our NZU price data for a mid-May price as it's expressed in average monthly prices.

On our graph of of NZU prices, we add a vertical line for the 15th of May and then where that line intersects with the price line we add a horizontal line across to the prices on the Y axis. Or we could have looked up the .csv file of the prices. We get $NZ 21.38 per unit.

Multiplying the 6,743,573 units by $21.38 equals 143,503,233 NZ dollars!

I am gob-smacked by that! $143.5 million! Just gifted to emitters! Deliberately to reduce the effect of the carbon price on these privileged emitters. And as Idiot/Savant noted, the allocations will slowly and incrementally 'phase out' by the minutest of percentages until 2015!

Of the big three, New Zealand Steel received units worth $NZ 37.9 million, New Zealand Aluminium Smelters received units worth $NZ 28 million and Methanex received units worth $NZ 20 million. Here's the pie chart denominated in dollars.

Here is a bar chart which are usually easier to read.

Here is the tidied data of the name of the emitter, the amount of final units and the value at the mid May price of $NZ21.38. The data file is also at Google Drive sheets.

EPA Industrial Allocation Units Value 2018
Name Allocation Value
New Zealand Steel Development Limited 1782366 37928748.48
New Zealand Aluminium Smelters Limited 1324556 28186551.68
Methanex New Zealand Ltd 945210 20114068.8
Fletcher Concrete and Infrastructure Limited 584032 12428200.96
Oji Fibre Solutions (NZ) Limited 484322 10306372.16
Ballance Agri-Nutrients (Kapuni) Limited 325594 6928640.32
Pan Pac Forest Products Limited 210652 4482674.56
Norske Skog Tasman Ltd 200556 4267831.68
Winstone Pulp International Limited 151546 3224898.88
Graymont (NZ) Limited 144405 3072938.4
Whakatane Mill Limited 139690 2972603.2
ACI OPERATIONS NZ LIMITED 59945 1275629.6
Fonterra Limited 50664 1078129.92
Asaleo Care New Zealand Limited 29419 626036.32
Nelson Pine Industries Limited 26569 565388.32
Wallace Group Limited Partnership 26539 564749.92
Pacific Steel (NZ) Limited 19550 416024
EVONIK PEROXIDE LIMITED 18443 392467.04
Daiken New Zealand Limited 17770 378145.6
Dongwha New Zealand Limited 16854 358653.12
Status Produce Limited 15496 329754.88
Taranaki By-Products Ltd 14197 302112.16
Exception Limited 11618 247231.04
Tuakau Proteins Ltd 11393 242443.04
Anchor Ethanol Limited 10784 229483.52
Southern Paprika Limited 10406 221439.68
Alliance Group Limited 10012 213055.36
Affco New Zealand Limited 9465 201415.2
Under Glass (Karaka) Limited 7574 161174.72
Gourmet Mokai Limited 7006 149087.68
Under Glass (Bombay) Ltd 6194 131808.32
Websters Hydrated Lime Company Limited 5999 127658.72
J.S.Ewers Ltd 5853 124551.84
Hawkes Bay Protein Limited 5740 122147.2
CMP Canterbury Limited 5470 116401.6
Juken New Zealand Ltd 5304 112869.12
Gourmet Paprika Limited 4837 102931.36
PVL Proteins Limited 3632 77288.96
Fletcher Building Products Limited 3344 71160.32
Sharma Produce Limited 2677 56966.56
Gourmet Waiuku Limited 2190 46603.2
Kakariki Proteins Limited 2037 43347.36
Shipherd Nurseries Limited 1900 40432
Island Horticulture Limited 1717 36537.76
Tegel Foods Limited 1632 34728.96
Value Proteins Ltd 1581 33643.68
Whakatane Growers Limited 1393 29643.04
P H Kinzett Ltd 1344 28600.32
Moffatts Flower Company Limited 1182 25152.96
Karaka Park Produce Limited 1169 24876.32
Van Lier Nurseries Ltd 1123 23897.44
Taylor Preston Limited 1104 23493.12
Meenakshi Devi Sharma, Raj Kumar Sharma 1080 22982.4
Vege Fresh Growers Limited 1075 22876
Jai Shankar Growers Limited 928 19747.84
Prime Range Meats Limited 928 19747.84
Homestead Produce Ltd 881 18747.68
Sinai Hort Limited 604 12853.12
J.S. Mahey Limited 599 12746.72
Castle Rock Orchard Ltd 564 12001.92
Karamea Tomatoes Limited 526 11193.28
Poppas Peppers 2009 Limited 351 7469.28
Taaza Green Limited 337 7171.36
Harbour Head Growers Ltd 261 5554.08
Ting-Yuan Robert Wu 239 5085.92
Parkgard Growers 2000 Limited 222 4724.16
Antone James Ivicevich, Joanne Elizabeth Gould Ivicevich 210 4468.8
Graeme Lowe Protein Limited 198 4213.44
Mary Jane Fausett, Peter James Fausett 143 3043.04
Pomoana Gardens Limited 100 2128
John Hamilton Charles Falloon, Paul Gregory Whitehead 79 1681.12
Royal Roses Limited 66 1404.48
Kingbridge Ltd 61 1298.08
Eseta Kovati, Reupena Kovati 37 787.36
GELITA NZ Ltd 29 617.12
Wallace Corporation Limited 0 0

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